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By Jan Schalkwijk, Guest Writer
JPS Global Investments
On December 19th,
the Energy Bill was signed into law in Washington, D.C. Around the same
time, the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali came to a
close, with the United States signing on to a post-Kyoto agreement to
further reduce greenhouse gas emissions. On the surface, these were
two positive developments. However, critics lament that the changes
are not drastic enough to meaningfully address the issue of climate
change.
U.S. Congress takes a small "green" step
Republicans stall environment-friendly energy bill in Senate
Sunday December 16th, 2007 (this YouTube video came out days before the Energy Bill was passed)
Note: Brendan Bell is the Washington lobbyist for the Union of Concerned Scientists.
The Bali agreement lacked specificity,
but the Energy Bill contains some concrete directives. Most notably,
fuel economy standards will increase to an average of 35 miles per gallon
by 2020 and the incandescent light bulb will be phased out. These achievements
came at great cost: there are no further specific mandates requiring
utilities to increase their renewable energy mix and oil companies get
to keep their lofty subsidies. Let’s examine the fuel economy standards.
In my view, 35 miles per gallon does not equate to setting the bar very
high. Currently, Europe and Japan are over 40 mpg already and are requiring
efficiency levels in the high 40s by 2012 and 2015 respectively. China
is looking for 35 mpg in 2009. Our promise of 35 mpg by 2020 is akin
to a kindergartener promising to learn his ABCs by the time he enters
6th grade. It’s a start, but we need to be more ambitious.
Although the car manufacturers
fought the mileage increase on the one hand, they are gearing up their
fleets to become more fuel efficient on the other hand, realizing full
well that the world is changing. At the Detroit Auto Show, GM
announced that by 2010 all Hummers will come with a biofuel option.
In addition to the bio Hummer, there are other icons of the gas guzzler
age seeking to relieve themselves of the burden of guilt. For example,
Land Rover showcased the LRX in Detroit, its smallest SUV ever. It will
be powered by a diesel/hybrid engine and get 40 miles per gallon,
handily beating our 2020 mandate, incidentally.
The car continues to be an extension
of one’s personality, especially in image conscious Southern California.
One of the reasons for the success of Toyota’s hybrid car the Prius,
besides the obvious first-to-market disruptive technology, is the fact
that the Prius makes a statement: “I am different, I am green.”
Driving a Honda Civic with a hybrid engine does not market your greenness
quite as powerfully. So what can the successful eco-preneur or conscious
capitalist drive? It is not going to be a Prius. Enter Tesla.
The Roadster, Tesla’s first model, is 100% electric. If you can come
up with $98,000 you can get on the waiting list for one of these toys.
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and actor George Clooney are
on the list for one, so if you decide to sign up, you are in good company.
The performance of the car is not too shabby either. It accelerates
from 0 to 60 miles per hour in 4 seconds. That is comparable to a Ferrari
F430 Spider, except that you will get 135 mpg equivalent vs. 11 for
the Spider.
Another recent market entrant
in the eco-luxury space is Fisker Automotive, Inc., announced at the
Detroit Auto Show. This company is playing in the same sandbox as Tesla,
though its car, expected on the market in 2009, is a little cheaper
at $80,000. It is backed by Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, one
of the premier Silicon Valley venture capital firms. In 2050, when we
look back at the early part of the century to see what developments
had the greatest impact on reducing climate change, I doubt Tesla and
Fisker will top the list. However, if their technologies can be introduced
into the mass market, they may yet have a big role to play.
What may end up being a bigger
revolutionary development in the automotive industry, is the debut of
the Tata Nano at the New Delhi Auto Expo. The sticker price: 1 lak,
or $2,500. Henry Ford’s decision to produce a car for the masses
has dominated the automotive landscape every since. However, cars have
not reached prices whereby they can be extended to the masses in developing
countries such as India. Tata is crossing that bridge. Suzuki
has long dominated the Indian small car market with a $5,000 car and
Nissan and Ford have cars in the works between $5,000 and $7,000, but
it is hard to conceptualize how they are going to compete with a $2,500
car.
Mr. Tata said the tiny car is
aimed at keeping the families of India's growing middle class from having
to travel with as many as four people on a scooter. "It will provide
Indian families with a safe form of transport," he told reporters
in Delhi. Tata has been able to keep the price low without making the
car too dirty or dangerous by making it small, he said. With a length
of 3.1 meters (about 10 feet), a width of 1.5 meters and a height of
1.6 meters, the new vehicle is 20% smaller than the next cheapest car
in India, the Maruti Suzuki 800. It gets about 50 mpg. Now, to U.S.
consumers the Nano may not look so safe, but that is all in the eye
of the beholder. Would you rather be rear-ended by a Nano or a Yukon
Danali. We also don’t travel with 4 people on a scooter, in fact,
4 people in a sedan is a stretch.
Auto manufacturers in the developed
world did not win the race to make the cheapest car, but they are competing
to place first in biofuels and battery technology. Recently, GM
announced that it has invested in Coskata, Inc, a biofuels company that
plans to convert waste to ethanol. Coskata claims that it will be able
to produce ethanol for under $1.00 per gallon, which is about half the
cost of producing a gallon of gasoline. On the electric vehicle front,
batteries have been the main show stopper. It is proving difficult to
develop an effective and reliable lithium ion battery pack or other
battery solutions. Here, GM is again looking outside of the Detroit
area to find a partner. The company is currently working with
A123 Systems to develop a lithium ion battery cell for the promised
Chevy Volt, GM’s concept electric vehicle.
Another battle in the automobile
industry is taking place between manufacturers of diesel engines and
those of hybrids. Diesel engines, popular in Europe for decades, are
longer-lasting than gasoline engines and more efficient, thus releasing
less carbon dioxide from the tailpipe. U.S. consumers have shunned diesel
since the early 80s over pollution concerns, smell, and engine noise.
The older diesel engines also produced more smog-forming pollutants
and toxic particulate matter, also known as soot, as compared to gasoline
engines. However, today’s diesel engines are much cleaner, due
to cleaner diesel fuel with lower sulfur content and new technology
that filters engine particulate emissions. Perhaps a resurgence of the
diesel car is imminent.
What will end up being the transformative
change in the auto industry? Will it be the electric car, biofuels,
the nano concept, clean diesel/hybrid, or a combination? Whatever,
the case may be, it will likely be the biggest change the car has seen
since Henry Ford introduced the Model T 100 years ago.
JPS Global Investments
(619) 269-0329
http://www.jpsglobalinvest.com
Google.org RechargeIT: Plug-in Hybrids
Featuring Jim Woolsey, Chelsea Sexton, Larry Brilliant and
others, this video describes plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, vehicle
to grid (V2G) as part of Google.org's RechargeIT project.
First Drive: 2008 Tesla Roadster
It's fast, sexy and...green. The 2008 Tesla Roadster brings a much
needed dash of performance to the green car movement. Motor Trend's
Technical Editor, Kim Reynolds, explores the hills just outside of San
Francisco in this technological tour de force.
http://www.motortrend.com/roadtests/a...
2009 Honda FCX Clarity First Drive by Edmunds' Inside Line
The high-pitched whine as the 2009 Honda FCX Clarity's "engine"
spools up is a sound as futuristic as any to be heard aboard the
Millennium Falcon. Except the Star Wars ship is all fiction and movie
magic. The FCX Clarity is all fact. The future — green, fuel-efficient
and petroleum-free — is here.
150 MPG Extreme Hybrid SUV on CNN
CNN's Greg Hunter takes a sneak peek at our 'extreme hybrid' car that gets about 150 miles per gallon.
First Drive: 2009 Honda FCX Clarity
Clarity. It's the name Honda has given its production fuel cell
car, and it's a name you'll want to remember. After years of having
fuel cell prototypes in the hands of fleets and even paying customers,
Honda makes good on its commitment to a hydrogen future. The 2007 Los
Angeles Auto Show was the venue for the introduction of the FCX
Clarity, an Accord-sized sedan with styling based on the FCX Concept
from a few years ago that promises to "enable levels of performance
room, comfort and dynamic styling previous unattainable in a fuel cell
car."
The Largest Fleet of Hybrid-Articulated Buses
in History
Medialink (June 2007) -- Seattle's efforts to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions and target global warming are among the most aggressive
in the U.S. Due to this strong environmental leadership, the city has
one of the greenest transit agencies in the nation. Now with the
addition of 500 more buses, they will have the largest fleet of
hybrid-articulated buses in history with a total of 736 buses and hope
other major cities will quickly follow suit.
Powered by hybrid
technology from General Motors, GM's strategy is to save as many
gallons of fuel as possible by applying the technology first to
high-volume and high fuel-consuming vehicles such as mass transit buses
and SUVs. Currently, more than 700 buses with GM's 2-mode hybrid system
have been delivered to 54 cities across the U.S. and Canada, saving an
estimated 1 million gallons of fuel annually. The addition of these 500
buses, will bring the total to more than 1,200 buses, saving an
estimated 1.75 million gallons of fuel annually.
In fact, the
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a one-year
comparative study between conventional diesel buses and diesel hybrid
electric articulated buses currently in Seattle. The report showed that
the hybrid powered buses had a 27 percent higher fuel economy on
average when compared to the convention diesel buses and total
operating cost were lowered by 15 percent. The full study can be viewed
at: http://www.nrel.gov/vehiclesandfuels/...
Transit
buses with the 2-mode hybrid system deliver significantly better fuel
economy than traditional transit buses, cut certain emissions up to 90
percent and have operating sound levels approaching that of passenger
cars. Other benefits of the hybrid system include reduced maintenance
costs resulting from extended brake, engine oil and transmission oil
life, superior torque, and improved acceleration.
Produced for General Motors
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