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By Jan Schalkwijk, Guest Writer
JPS Global Investments
December 19th, 2007
San Diego, CA - After roughly two decades of cheap oil, the world has changed. The price of oil has climbed from under $25 per barrel in September 2003 to almost $100 per barrel in November 2007. Yes, a 400% increase. Combine that with the alarming statistics on climate change, and the stage is set for either disaster or a revolutionary shift to a more sustainable world economy. Being an optimist, I think the latter is the case, and companies developing clean technologies hold some of the keys to success, both for their shareholders and the world.
Roughly, Clean Tech breaks down into alternative fuels, transportation,
renewable energy, and efficiency. Let’s talk efficiency first: here we
can perhaps make the most dramatic improvements. The greatest
opportunity for efficiency solutions relates to our infrastructure,
particularly our buildings. In the U.S., buildings account for 48% of
total energy consumption and as much as 76% of the energy produced at
coal-fired power plants, according to the US Energy Information
Administration. At current rates, we are adding 2 parts per million
(ppm) of CO2 to the atmosphere, which would put us in the
scientifically-agreed-upon danger zone of 450 ppm by 2035. A
significant decrease in coal consumption would give us more time and
perhaps allow us to avoid the 450. The obvious solution here would be
to build more efficient buildings, reducing the need for coal-fired
plants.
From an investor’s stand point, the Clean Tech opportunities are
everywhere, but one has to proceed with caution. Is it worth buying a
solar stock that is trading at 600 times earnings and just quintupled
over the last year? One sensible way of going about it, is to look for
diversified companies that also have a solar division. These companies
are not solely trading on solar “hype” but on their other business
lines as well and may come cheaper.
Also, not all ideas are good ideas, particularly if the federal
government is behind it. Think corn-based ethanol. A year ago, the
administration, Main Street, and Wall Street were all in love with corn
ethanol on the grounds of energy independence and the environment. Now,
it is thought by many, including the Organization for Economic
Development and Cooperation, that the cure is worse than the disease.
The price of corn is up; the price of ethanol is not. Ethanol producers
are getting squeezed, higher corn prices risk food security issues in
countries that import corn, and the environmental benefits may be a
wash at best. The advice to investors is to be patient and not give in
to the greed factor, diversify into different technologies, and use
common sense. Not every bandwagon is worth jumping on; especially if it
is loaded with corn.
When investors pile into a stock, the prospect of excess return is
quickly reduced by a run up in share price. If you are able to find an
area of the market where others are not yet looking, you may find some
interesting opportunities. Take the global shipping industry for
example. This industry is a very significant source of greenhouse
gasses, but has received little media attention in this regard. Ships
carry over 90% of global goods by volume. Moreover, this volume has
tripled since 1970. A study conducted by the International Council on
Clean Transportation concluded that ships release more sulfur dioxide
than the entire global fleet of cars, trucks, and buses combined and an
estimated 27% of global nitrogen oxide emissions. If the shipping
industry were a country, it would rank number seven in terms of total
greenhouse gas emissions. The problem is bunker fuel, a tar like sludge
by-product of the petroleum refining process. This is the main fuel
used in shipping. The market place is screaming for a solution, and the
companies that will provide it will stand to prosperous handsomely.
Here are some early possible solutions: Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics
wants to use solar, wave, and wind energy to power ships on their
voyage. SkySails, is developing large para-sails that can reduce a
ship’s fuel cost by 35%, with the first application to launch in
December. The sky is clearly the limit here.
Another Solution: the up and coming Ethos Environmental, Inc.,
a San Diego based company that is on a mission to be recognized as the
"industry standard" for high quality, non-toxic cleaning and
lubricating products that increase fuel mileage and reduce emissions.
One of the company's most anticipated products, Ethos Bunker Fuel
Conditioner, tested in Esmeraldas, Ecuador, is specially designed to
aid global shipping industry and any other mechanical equipment that
uses bunker fuel. See the test results below:
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